The Australian dollar passed 94 US cents for the second time this year, but the most likely direction for it from here is down.
That’s because the US dollar should strengthen as the Federal Reserve winds back its bond buying program, which was designed to stimulate the American economy.
The likelihood of a Reserve Bank interest rate hike has eased and so has the chances of the Aussie getting any higher.
“Longer term, the Aussie should drift back lower down towards 90 US cents and into the 80s before the end of the year,” LTG GoldRock director Andrew Barnett said.
“We need a bit of positive economic news out of the US to get people buying the US dollar and some more negative news out of Australia to push the Aussie down.
It has been a year since the Australian dollar was last above parity with the greenback and Mr Barnett doesn’t expect that to happen anywhere on the horizon.
“The risk is for the downside rather than the upside for the Aussie,” he said.
In recent days the National Australia Bank revised its currency forecasts and expects the Aussie dollar to be a little higher than previously forecast but still expects the currency to fall from here to 85 US cents at the end of the year.
JP Morgan is forecasting the Aussie to be 89 US cents in December, ANZ 85 cents, Westpac 90 cents.
Citbank and the Commonwealth Bank are more optimistic, with forecasts of 95 US cents and 97 US cents, respectively.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver thinks Australian dollar’s rally over the past few months has run out of steam.
“The broad downtrend is likely to resume,” he said.
“Commodity prices remain relatively soft and the Australian dollar is likely to revert to levels that offset Australia’s relatively high cost base.”